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Confidence Change We calculated Δ​Belief=LikelihoodR​3−LikelihoodR​1\Delta\text{Belief}=\text{Likelihood}_{R3}-\text{Likelihood}_{R1} to measure change in confidence from the first to third round. A total of 512 participants (91.9%) provided a final likelihood rating and were included in confidence change analyses.333The completion rates differed significantly by condition, χ2​(4)=17.02\chi^{2}(4)=17.02, p=.002p=.002. The Random Sequence condition had the highest attrition (16.1% missing likelihood), while Rule Confirming had the lowest (1.8%).

There’s no doubt that the S26 Ultra is an improvement over last year’s phone. It’s faster, it takes better low-light photos and thanks to all of its new AI features, the handset feels smarter too. But it takes a discerning eye to spot and feel all these differences, particularly if you’re upgrading from a device that’s only a year or two old. So while the S26 Ultra remains the top pick as a phone that can do pretty much everything really well, in the grand scheme of things, it’s more of a stealthy, undercover update than an eye-catching new crown jewel.

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