沒有任何先例顯示,可以僅靠空戰就推翻一個武裝精良的敵對政權。2003年,美國和包括英國在內的盟國出動大規模地面部隊入侵伊拉克推翻薩達姆政權。2011年,利比亞的卡扎菲則是在北約和海灣國家協助武裝的反叛軍攻擊下被推翻並遭殺害。特朗普如今寄望伊朗人民自己完成這項任務。
“伊朗确实具备生产武器级浓缩铀的能力,但是否突破为核弹级别的攻击性武器可能还值得怀疑。”肖宁向南方周末记者分析,从拥有武器级浓缩铀到制造出核武器,需要跨越极高的门槛,伊朗尚未真正跨过核武器实战化这一步,短期内不具备核打击能力。
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